Canada Shifts to a Controlled Immigration Era: From Growth to Stability (2024–2028)

Canada’s immigration strategy has entered a new phase — moving from rapid expansion to managed stability.
Over the past two years, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has unveiled two consecutive multi-year Immigration Levels Plans (2025–2027 and 2026–2028) that collectively reshape how newcomers, students, and workers will be admitted into the country.

🔹 The 2025–2027 Plan (Released October 2024): Cooling Down Population Growth

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan set a clear intention to “cool off” Canada’s rapid population growth following record immigration in 2023–2024.

Key permanent resident (PR) targets:

That’s a 21% reduction from earlier projections — the first time in modern policy history that Canada intentionally reduced immigration levels across successive years.

Temporary residents also capped

For the first time, IRCC tied temporary resident (TR) numbers — international students, temporary foreign workers, and visitors — to the same framework, signalling a shift toward a “whole-of-migration” management model.

Approximate TR targets were:

• 2025: 673,000 new temporary residents

• 2026: 516,000

• 2027: 543,000

The reasons behind the cuts:

• Housing and infrastructure pressures: Population growth outpaced housing supply, worsening affordability.

• Public concern over sustainability: Canadians increasingly linked immigration to rising rents and service strain.

• Economic recalibration: Emphasis shifted from volume to integration — prioritizing those already in Canada (students and workers) for permanent residency.

Policy goals:

• Maintain immigration at around 1% of Canada’s population.

• Increase the share of economic immigrants and francophone newcomers outside Quebec.

• Focus on regional programs such as the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and Rural and Northern Immigration Pilot.

🔹 The 2026–2028 Plan Preview (October 2025): Consolidating Stability

One year later, in October 2025, IRCC confirmed it would continue its cautious approach in the forthcoming 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, to be tabled officially by November 1, 2025.

According to early indicators and policy briefings:

• The annual PR target for 2026–2028 will remain below 420,000, maintaining a stable range around 380,000–416,000.

• The plan will sharply limit temporary resident entries, especially international students and short-term workers, in response to calls for better balance between immigration and infrastructure.

• A new transition program is being introduced to grant permanent residence to over 30,000 work-permit holders between 2026 and 2027 — reinforcing the idea that experience inside Canada will become the main pathway to PR.

• IRCC and the Department of Housing confirmed that slower immigration growth has already begun to ease pressure on housing and rental prices, a trend expected to continue into 2026.

Economists and demographers describe this as a “policy correction period” — shifting the country’s focus from maximizing numbers to maintaining quality integration and long-term retention.

🔹 Implications for Stakeholders

🧑‍🎓 For international students

• Stricter caps on study permits mean increased competition for Canadian schools.

• Students should prioritize programs with strong PR pathways (e.g., healthcare, IT, skilled trades).

• Strong English/French proficiency and relevant work experience are now more critical than ever.

👷 For workers

• Temporary foreign worker programs remain vital, but employers must justify genuine labour shortages.

• Workers with Canadian experience will have priority PR access under the new transition programs.

🏢 For employers and agencies

• Businesses reliant on foreign labour must plan earlier for recruitment and compliance.

• Provincial and regional streams will play a larger role in filling skill gaps.

🧳 For investors and consultants

• The trend toward moderation means programs like entrepreneur and investor visas may see longer processing times but higher approval scrutiny.

• The government’s focus is now on quality investment and job creation, not passive inflows.

🔹 Expert Take

Policy analysts describe the current shift as “a reset rather than a retreat.”
Canada remains committed to immigration as an economic driver — but the pace is being calibrated to match domestic capacity. The government aims to find the “sweet spot” where newcomers can integrate successfully without worsening affordability or infrastructure strain.

🔹 Summary: Key Takeaways

• Canada’s immigration plan is moving from record-high intake to controlled stability.

• PR targets will stay around 380,000–400,000 annually until at least 2028.

• Temporary residents (students and workers) will face stricter caps and eligibility reviews.

• Experience inside Canada — rather than direct overseas entry — will increasingly define successful PR applications.

• This period (2025–2028) represents a strategic stabilization phase in Canadian immigration policy.

In short:
Canada’s door remains open — but the line outside is getting shorter and slower to move. Those who prepare strategically, choose the right programs, and build in-Canada experience will have the clearest path forward in the new immigration landscape.